The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its latest “Energy Outlook for Africa 2022” survey reports that if reliable electricity is to be provided to all Africans by 2030, grid expansion will be needed, along with more natural gas development.
In terms of photovoltaic costs, the report predicts that by 2030, the cost of photovoltaics in Africa may drop to US$0.018/kWh to US$0.049/kWh, and its price will be lower than that of wind power or natural gas power generation.
The report, released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), dashes the lingering hope of securing electricity for all in Africa and reducing or eliminating the use of fossil fuels by 2030.
The study predicts that by 2030, 85% of North Africa’s energy will still come from oil and gas. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also said that cheap coal-fired power will continue to dominate South Africa’s energy mix. The report develops the Sustainable Africa Scenario (SAS) model, under which the continent is expected to achieve all energy-related Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.
The 250-page study found that one in five LNG facilities in Africa are at risk of flooding. According to the Sustainable Africa Scenario (SAS) model in the study, nearly 45% of the continent’s inhabitants who currently lack access to electricity are better served by grid expansion than through off-grid generation systems, which The system is only deployed in remote areas.
In terms of photovoltaic costs, the document predicts that by 2030, the cost of photovoltaics in Africa will be $0.018/kWh to $0.049/kWh.
This means that by 2030, Africa is expected to have installed 125GW of photovoltaic systems and will account for more than 40% of the new generation. The report also expects that from 2021 to 2030, this figure will include about 225MW of PV system microgrid installed capacity per year. And in countries such as Somalia, where there is little power grid, off-grid networks dominate.
In the case of natural gas, gas production could grow from 3 million tons per year currently produced to more than 5 million tons by 2030. But only 15 percent of that 5 million tonnes is what the International Energy Agency calls “low carbon” natural gas, which includes gas produced from fossil fuels equipped with carbon capture technology.
By 2030, the cost of hydrogen production in Africa could be less than $2/kg, making it competitive with hydrogen export products from the Middle East and Southern Europe. Under the scenario in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) study, production figures rise to 20 million tonnes by mid-century, 80 percent of which will be low-carbon hydrogen by then.
The Sustainable Africa Scenario (SAS) model will create 4 million energy-related jobs by 2030, primarily to ensure access to electricity for all in Africa, the report said. But this requires a lot of investment. From 2016 to 2020, the average annual energy investment figure in Africa was US$99 billion, and between 2026 and 2030 this figure must increase to US$192 billion per year.
Achieving goals such as universal access to electricity will require expanding the use of natural gas, the IEA said. As the rest of the world transitions to energy by 2030, growing demand for domestically produced natural gas, much of which is currently untapped reserves, will also cushion the decline in fossil fuel export earnings, the report noted. In addition, expanding gas production will help Europe wean itself off Russian gas.
